noun
a supposition that something may be true, even though there is no evidence to confirm it
verb
to suppose that something is true without having evidence to confirm it
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Based on the evidence presented, we can surmise that the suspect is guilty.
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I can only surmise what happened based on the limited information I have.
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I'm just guessing, but I surmise that he's not going to show up to the party.
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When faced with uncertainty, we often have to surmise our way through the situation.